Finance & Startups

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Yeah there’s a lot of uncertainty and uncertainty is bad for the market. Even domestic producers may not be immune to further downturn if diesel, shipping and other input costs keep rising. I think you’re right to sit back and let things settle for a little while. And I’ve been using PUT option protection to help offset long positions going down.. those have helped

@John honestly yeah, underestimating Iran has been a recurring mistake. For me, I'm zooming in on domestic producers that don't need the Strait to function. Fertilizer, helium, LNG, uranium, aluminum, gold, and other rare earth options. Defense is usually a good move but I don't know this time. The munitions shortage backlog was already packed before this started so new demand might not move it much. LMT may keep moving up, as we continue to need THAAD replacements. We pulled some out of Korea and moving to the Strait. Perhaps drone and drone defense like AVAV? PLTR & CRWD for the cyber front? AGH is in the drone space but high risk...do your homework on that one, it's strange. I'm just going to let it breathe a few more days before making moves.

So what happens next? A highly risky ground invasion? We’ve been underestimating the Iranians and that’s been a huge mistake. I hope we don’t continue that

Oh shoot, that was on?! Was cheering on Artemis II launch. Futures tanked and oil surged as expected. Luckly there's a few days to let the dust settles and look for some opportunities.

At market close, I was definitely feeling like I went a little overboard on the puts the last two days and I was like yeah that was probably dumb, but I definitely feel better about them after this speech

A pep talk, yes, and foreshadowing of a more bold plan that he can’t reveal today. I heard two clues: 1. He mentioned the sacrifice of the soldiers who perished and the families “urged him to finish the job” 2. Our Arab allies support us and want us to continue I read that as we have permission and a duty to overthrow the regime.. perhaps attempt a takeover of the whole country. I don’t know what that that looks like or how we achieve it but there can’t be a scenario where we let Iran hold the strait hostage indefinitely. No way Trump just walks away.. he basically said that tonight

Mostly felt like a pep talk to me

It spiked as soon as uncle don mentioned we were not done

Fun fact: California will face jet fuel shortages in a couple weeks. As will the UK

Hormuz Strait closed = higher oil prices

Oil 👀👀👀

Good news. I haven’t used a lot of money. I am being cautious as i learn

I'm just DCA on my forever holds, updating my stop losses for the fun plays, and keeping reserve to buy when ready.

I like INTC too but I’m still urging extreme caution when buying stocks. The global economy is nowhere near in the clear. I even sold the majority of my beloved CRCA position yesterday (good thing I did) The Nasdaq is rolling over and tonight’s speech will be a “sell the news” event

I think it was your recommendation. History seems pretty solid.

Congrats Elizabeth! I genuinely believe in INTCs growth and their product pipeline.

Well, I put some money in INTC per one of your recommendations and so far so good it’s interesting to kind of watch and sea trends. I know I have a long way to go, but I think I’m off to a good start. Thank you everyone for your input in this chat.

I really like the company and took a transatlantic cruise on Norwegian a couple years ago. They have a product called Haven that’s more upscale and was an incredible experience.. so I’ve been looking for an entry point to buy the stock. So I have a unique perspective as a would-be buyer.. with the desire to get the stock on sale. So, until I feel like it’s a good buy, I think it’s an easy short with all the pressure on their margins. This short-term bounce is just more of what we’ve seen for weeks with the president doing everything he can to talk the market up. Every time he speaks about an end to the conflict his ability diminishes. The true cost of the war has a lag to it. No amount of words will alter the reality of margin pressure on major companies all over the world

I doubt this is the way it goes but if he ends up taking this last off ramp, bows out and just leaves the straight of Hormuz closed… 1/5 of the worlds oil offline. US being the largest producer of oil in the world… US oil and energy companies will stand to gain massively. Oil will stay at 100+ a barrel with US to start selling more to Europe and Asia.

Possibly yeah but you’d have to go out past the June contracts and into July so it raises the cost a bit. I haven’t followed Carnival very closely so I don’t have the same read on the psychology. Whereas with Norwegian I have a sense that investors are sick and tired of riding the stock loss for years and makes it vulnerable to a big decline

Would CCL be a good put play into their June 23rd earnings? No fuel hedges means every dollar of elevated oil hits margins directly... but they just reported record ticket sales so it could wash the increased expenses. 🤔

perhaps he'll live chat with Artemis crew for a few minutes? 🤷‍♂️

I also bought some longer duration NCLH PUTs.. the $14 strike June 18 expiration. They expire after Norwegian’s next earnings report and I think that’s when the real fuel expense pain will be on full parade. NCLH has been as low as $11 per share as recently as 2022.. the last time oil reached these levels. Those PUTs are only $0.44 but could be worth $3 by June. So that would be like 500-600% gain

Funny Trump’s prime time address this evening falls on April fools day,

SC oral arguments he's attending today may signal how tonight's speech plays out and how futures react. First president to do this, and with emotions running high, any tweets or comments directed at the court, institutional stability, hit the market differently. Pulling leveraged positions and gains before the bell and watching how the weekend unfolds. Plenty of hurdles still ahead but I hope you all have a great weekend! Anyone else listening to the oral arguments?

April 10 NCLH $18 PUTs

What dates did you buy John?

I’m not buying this stock market rally. I’m not buying that we’re anywhere near a ceasefire. Iran continues to deny that any negotiations are taking place and they continue to strangle the global economy by restricting access to energy, aluminum (as Homer pointed out), fertilizer, helium (used for semiconductor manufacturing) and countless other inputs. I don’t think Trump is addressing the nation to say we’re done with Iran.. he doesn’t need a speech for that. I think he’s hoping to soften any backlash or uproar for his upcoming ground invasion that’s already planned and will happen in a week or two. I added more NCLH PUT options. I also bought SQQQ which is a HIGHLY risky 3X short against the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ). I only plan to hold that one for a couple days at most.. maybe the end of next week.

To me, their Boulder concept kinda looks like a 4runner and Bronco fusion. Anyone else watch the international auto show?

Hyundai already said ai 3x and robotics 3x during their international auto show presentation but now talking about the World Cup?

Anthropic accidentally shipped Claude Code's full source code (~512K lines of TypeScript) inside a public npm package on March 31 via a stray source map file. Researcher Chaofan Shou found it immediately, posted the link, and it was forked 41,500+ times before DMCA takedowns hit.

Mornin all! Premarket looks cautiously optimistic heading into last day before the long weekend and an administration's address at 9PM ET. Oil dipped to $97 overnight but it's back to $100.

John, when we last saw each other a month ago, you agreed that my broker was correct to sell in October and hold cash. I’ve got cash sitting on the sidelines.. she reached out today for a call on Wednesday morning.

Jumped into RKLX, SNPX, ASMU positions during premarket and kept them overnight. I'll see how they look in the morning but I won't keep them going over the long weekend ahead. Worst case is I'll buy back in on Monday if momentum continues.

Iranian strikes on March 28 damaged Emirates Global Aluminium and Aluminium Bahrain, the largest single site smelter outside China. The US imports ~21% of its aluminum from the Middle East and a ceasefire doesn't repair damage overnight. Aluminum futures rose past $3,500/tonne in March, up 12% and its strongest performance since 2018. The industry was already in a global deficit before the conflict started. Alcoa AA jumped 12% yesterday but really, I think we're all going to feel this one at various checkouts. I don't think the smelters have released updates on the damage done but AA may be worth keeping an eye on for domestic reliability.

Interesting 🤔

Not sure if everyone caught this but we automated selective service enrollment in the FY2026 NDAA, raised the voluntary enlistment age from 35 to 42, and removed marijuana conviction barriers for new recruits. The draft pool is still 18-25 but now we have a bigger voluntary pool and an economic draft is a real thing.

@Nicholas you've got this man!

I’ve loaded up on puts hammering TSLL 12’s

Thanks Homer, appreciate the constructive feedback man

@Nicholas honestly it's the best time. Everyone can win in a bull market, the environment we're in showcases the multiple layers and how to separate emotions from the money.

I did take advantage of some dips for sure, bringing down that average is a mantra I can understand 🤘

Sometimes you make more money during the chaos

You know, what a time we live in…and I don’t appreciate all this going on while I dipped my toe back into investing 😂😅

Iran supplies Russia with its drones btw

And not one carrier can pass through the Strait of Hormuz. A $20K Iranian sea-drone can sink a billion dollar American ship Warfare is changing daily. Watch Sunday’s 60 Minutes on CBS. The second story was all about this asymmetric warfare that’s accelerating rapidly. Mainly because of the tit-for-tat between Russia and Ukraine

No need for more presence though if they had confidence in the ceasefire holding.

USS Ford was pulled out to Croatia for repairs right? Some say internal oosie fire, others saying it was hit 🤷‍♂️

Another aircraft carrier headed over now: The Wall Street Journal reports that the aircraft carrier USS George H.W. Bush is on its way to the Middle East. If confirmed - its arrival would bring the total number of U.S. aircraft carriers in the region to three.

Optimism is an emotion and emotions lead to investing mistakes

I for one definitely fall into that category.. 😢

This bounce is consistent with what I’ve been pointing out for weeks.. that US investors are FAR too complacent and FAR too optimistic. There’s a fundamental disconnect between the market’s psychology and the men’s psychology who are in a pissing contest on a global scale

Would love for this thing to be over but they’re likely stalling waiting until they get troops and positioning built up and then will commence with further escalation / ground ops on weekend after markets close.

The ceasefire news moving the market right now (last couple hours) doesn’t feel like a real ceasefire. It’s crazy how the headlines drive the market in one direction so quickly. Iran has some demands for this ceasefire that seem like non starters

Yep.. my thoughts exactly ☝️

I dropped my limit sell order to $42.. if I’m wrong and it goes up tomorrow that’s fine. I own lots of CRCL and CALL options on CRCL

I think I’ll lower my limit order and get out of most of my CRCA and look for an entry point in the low $30’s

I tried to sell a bunch of my CRCA at $43.70 but it didn’t reach that high. I don’t trust the CRCA trade in the short term. The problem with it is that its 2X performance resets each day and today will not have any effect on tomorrow. And tomorrow I think the market goes back to suffering… and will continue suffering for a while.

I think I’ll hold on to those 😅

I bought the $18 NCLH April 10 expiration.. paid $0.49

For example, I bought CRCA at $59

If you can sell some trades today that you are even on, or up a little on, sell the portion of shares that you paid most for so you lower your avg purchase price

When you say, sell your winners John, should I sell my lower priced stock purchases and hold on to the ones that were higher priced at the beginning of March?

I just picked up some 18.5 and 18’s last week I picked up a few $13’s just in case I think that’s a little aggressive tho lol paid .52 for my 18’s and .68 for my 18.5’s I also am curious what John did I may adjust

What strike and expiry for the NCLH put?

I bought more PUTs on NCLH.. that was a huge win last week and should deliver again this coming week. Fuel costs are not going down anytime soon

Crap good looking out Homer I totally forgot!