Finance & Startups

Welcome friend 👋 This group exists to make money—lots of money—for our members. If you closely follow the advice of our CEO and Sircles Co-founder, John Worthington, you will make money if the market goes up or if the market goes down. You will learn tips, strategies, philosophies and how to read market psychology. You will have your choice of playing it safe with official recommendations “safe bets” or you can follow John into risky (unofficial recommendations) using short-term trades, options and complex hedging strategies. John’s safe bets have returned enormous gains and many pay high annual dividends for a low-risk and prosperous future. Timing is everything, however, and limit orders are your best friend. John will tell you entry and exit points that maximize your returns.

I was looking at oil for my next add. Maybe I just add to the ones I have for now for a few more paydays before adding anything new.

Bias speaking. A wonderful addition lol

This week’s investment made. I added CRCL to my list.

Just read through John’s messages and I gotta say I failed him on his UAL Put potions trade because I believe the narrative higher for longer oil until this Iran situation is wrapped up. Over the last few months I kept watching UAL stock price stay around low 100’s to 120’s and I’m going WTF makes no sense also watching oil prices stay at reasonable leveled which like John said HOW?? I arrived at the conclusion oil has to be artificially kept high I don’t know besides using reserves but again like John said those run out and we are scraping sledge off the bottom and if you know anything about oil’s, fuels, fluids of petroleum base or bio base this is where you get the fallout all the nasty crap that’s unusable and plugs filters and wrecks havoc. So all this being said my original PUTS expire next week…. L Oh well but I still believe we haven’t seen the worst of it when it comes to oil also the leveraging is a big problem. So I’ve pretty much stopped short term trades and have only been buying long plays little by little I did buy some more PUTS on UAL for December. My long term equity buys ( stock shares, not options) have been mostly in AI efficiency INTU, RKT AMZN, PLTR and APP which I just entered back into APP yesterday but the other 4 buying during the down turn are up decent trimmed to safe levels and move on to the next trade( I only share after the fact because I think there all set up well long term). Really tho short term is such a rollercoaster of volatility ( I didn’t really put the prices together until John mentioned it but was like ya that actually makes sense and tracks with what we’ve been seeing) it makes it hard to make plays with confidence because the behavior is soooo erratic in these stocks. Luckily I’ve been super busy with work the last few months and not able to focus on the markets as much, lots overtime putting it all towards building the dry powder reserves and paying off debt. Was very win win. I think there are opportunities coming.

Happy to help!

Anthony, that’s a significant effort on your part to share pertinent, critical information! Thank you 🙏

Thanks Anthony, there is so much fluff media like this one, I appreciate you taking the time to explain 👍

Ok so in my opinion kind of a nothing burger article. There basically saying that they want crypto to be a commodity rather than a security which would give the Securities and Exchange Commission ( SEC ) no power over crypto. Which is bullish crypto short term because less government regulation means they can kinda just do what they want but if you believe in the thesis of CRCL it’s kinda opposite because CRCL is in camp work with the government the article means camp anti government which is a big arguing point for crypto in general but member who we’re dealing with the U.S. government whatever is standard will have to be regulated the Gov will want to be able to control because that’s what GOV does there’s other reasons I think this is the path forward rabbit hole rabbit hole blah blah basically the article is speculative and is just presenting “this is what we think may happen” but it’s based more on speculation that facts not really a market mover buy or sell kinda article in my opinion

The clarity act is different than the sec. The sec is the governing body over the financial markets where clarity act is just like a bill it’s a peice of legislation that sets rules and boundaries. In reading the article rn for more info on your initial question

Sec is separate from the Clarity Act I’m deducing.

What does this mean in layman’s terms?

https://www.theblock.co/news/regulation/2026-08-11-sec-crypto-rules-token-safe-harbor-td-cowen-411455

Good luck with your surgery And i hope any other issues can be resolved soon. Please chime in as much as you can

Thanks John, love your analysis! Hope your surgery goes well

Thank you Elizabeth, I’m still a little lost in space lately.. still finding my way back and taking care of some healthcare issues I had put off. Plus making it worse on myself.. I recently injured my arm and have a surgery scheduled for later this afternoon :/

Your insight john has been missed. Welcome back

August through October are historically the worst performing months for the stock market. Also, years with midterm elections tend to underperform. Wall Street traders know this and exacerbate volatility by trying to get ahead of selling.. this becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. The global economy has been propped up by leverage and people have been lulled into thinking oil and gas prices stayed in a manageable range thus we have nothing to fear. However, it was all due to parlor tricks and tapping reserves. But it came at a price and could only last for so long. The United States completely drained our reserves. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) fell below 300M barrels of supply which is only weeks away from structural instability and total shut down. There is no other source to tap or alternate supply. It’s all gone. From the start everyone (except me) predicted a short conflict and things would return to normal. People still predict that. They are delusional. With Iran and their proxies actively attacking 30% of global oil supply, reserves drained and all production and refining running at maximum output.. there is no more buffer and a very dangerous cocktail for explosive inflation and conflict. I believe we are in the calm before the storm

Oh man, folks going into debt to invest the market at a tune of 1.06 trillion is mind blowing John. It kind of reminds me of people taking on huge student loan debt for the hope that a degree will open the door to a career that provides more financial stability.

Let’s break this down further. When looking at the real, inflation-adjusted depth of the investor cash deficit reveals how unique this current cycle is: The Dot-com Bubble (2000): Adjusted to today's dollars, the net credit balance bottomed out at roughly negative $410 billion. The Great Financial Crisis (2007): Adjusted to today's dollars, the cash deficit bottomed out at roughly negative $390 billion. The Post-COVID Bubble (2021): The cash deficit reached what was then a shocking real-term low of negative $509 billion. Today's Market (2026): At negative $1.06 trillion, the current real deficit is more than double the inflation-adjusted extremes of the 2000, 2007, and 2021 market peaks

The markets are overdue for a major correction.. like 40-50%. Every metric is flashing overpriced and overheated. Stock prices go up for only one reason.. more buying than selling. Prices go down for only one reason.. more selling than buying. The buying frenzy surrounding AI and Technology optimism has fueled an historic ramp-up of leverage (buying), leading to a staggering negative $1.06 trillion net credit balance—-> when you take total investor cash balances and subtract outstanding margin debt, the U.S. investor recently hit this all-time low. Investors carry far more debt than cash in their brokerage accounts. The buying has largely been financed with debt.. that never ends well. Be careful the remainder of this year and don’t add any risky positions. I’d also raise cash and keep that “dry powder” available for a downturn. Things can turn very quickly.

That Arc network looks interesting John, September 16th is the launch date I think!

Back to the mid-east.. I have an ongoing side debate with well-educated and well-informed friends who argue Iran and Trump MUST make a deal. Wrong! Iran DOES NOT have to make a deal and Trump CANNOT make a deal that saves him. I’ve been saying since the outset that Iran will never capitulate to the US and now it’s even more obvious. Iran has Trump by the balls. The global oil supply is at “tank bottoms” all over the world just as Iran is EXPANDING targeted strikes across energy infrastructure around The Persian Gulf and Red Sea. Why would Iran take it this far just to make a deal right when Trump is teetering over the cliff? They want him dead. Not metaphorically—literally. They parade banners and giant billboards, “WE WILL KILL YOU.” Since Iran can’t actually kill Trump, they will kill him reputationally and politically. There is no amount of money, concessions or threats the U.S. can make that will change the slow walk Iran is taking Trump toward the cliff. Iran will drive up energy prices between now and the Nov 3 mid term elections knowing full well a bloodbath for republicans at the polls could spell impeachment and humiliation for Trump by 2027. I’ve been right all this time but too right and too early for the rest of the world to figure it out.. but they’re starting to now.

The pundits and media seem so surprised there’s been no resolution to the Iran conflict. Who would have guessed that this would not go well and last this long? 🤔 I’ve never been so right about something and lost so much money. I stand by my analysis and still have time to come out ahead. I haven’t made any recommendations lately for a couple reasons. First, what I’m doing is beyond risky and I don’t want anyone attempting this at home. Second, I’ve broken a lot of my rules and find myself boxed in to two major trades. CRCL and bets against oil and oil sensitive stocks. I still have high confidence in those trades. CRCL is proving it’s worth day after day. I had hoped to buy more below $50/share but doubt it will get there. Analysts are recognizing their dominance and deep moat protecting them. Their earnings continue to grow and they haven’t even launched the ARC network yet (due next month)

I would recommend build a diversified portfolio across multiple sectors pick companies based on fundamentals not speculation every stock buy should be a well researched calculated move at a price point where you have more upside and value learn how to read final statements these companies put out on earnings best odds of not going to 0

It just takes time and focus

Would love to feel like I can count on this but can’t lie it’s a lot to learn if you have never participated before. I have always trusted my 401k to who manages it through work. I just know before I retire in no less than a decade, I will need more $$. If I really suck and lose it all I will have to think of another option. I hope not to suck.

I have done that too. I am currently using robin hood Playing the stock market. I only put in what i could afford to lose So i am still learning

I bank with Chase and they have a self invest option so I thought I would try that. So it’s just my bank at this point. Was easy enough for me and I don’t know what I am doing… I’m learning .

I hope to gain insight on other good companies to invest. I started with one and mostly looked there because of curiosity and found that they haven’t done too bad. I will keep watching here for advice though most definitely. Added $50 today as it’s payday and for now will add $50 weekly until I can do more. I’m happy to learn about those you are doing well with.

Yay kim!!!!!

Congratulations Kim! Big milestone! I’m curious are you planning to only invest in the company you work for? “EME”

Kim, did you open your account with an investment company, if so, who are you using? I really want to start investing, but terrified because I really don't understand it very well . 🙄

Opened my account today, for doing self trade. I opened with $10 to just open it. Next I will have a repeat deposit each week on pay day. Hopefully I do ok. 😳 it will be long haul and not quick cash out. Unless I get brave with some of the suggestions others share

I compared to Acco and Comfort Systems just to help my understanding. They are both doing similar to what my employer does. And I had no idea they were getting into AI…

Oh the ticker name I am looking at is EME. Emcor is the name of the company.

I have tried to do research and gain a better understanding on how to start investing. I for some reason just couldn’t wrap my head around how to get started. Anyway I have a better understanding now. I have read on some companies that are doing well and expected to continue to do well. Out of curiosity I looked into the company that I work for because I see firsthand our growth and how busy we always are. I compared to like companies. All just to help my comfort and confidence level. I asked copilot questions too. And after months of reading here and researching I think I will jump in tomorrow. For fun I asked how long would it take me to earn $350k if I were to invest $50 a week in the company I am employed by. It’s not a short term big gain but was surprised at how it’s not a real long time. And this is obviously based on how they have been doing. We have no way to read the future. Anyway, wish me luck and great gains!

I may have to sell one here!!!

Just one kidney away brother 😂

I thought about buying 220k shares, just not in the budget heh

Oh yes Cathie wood she’s been backing up the money truck for sure! Thanks Nicholas!

What caught my eye is Cathy Wood appears to be buying the dip.

https://www.digitaltoday.co.kr/en/view/82433/ark-invest-buys-another-220000-shares-of-circle-bets-more-despite-slowing-usdc-activity

Could you share the article on the CRCL insiders buying shares? I couldn’t find any would love to give it a read

Ya it seems apparent that the AI hardware has slowed meta kinda scarred everybody talking about “ oh we might just sell our excess compute “ meaning they overbuilt a few other factors but people are 100% waiting to start seeing earnings which I think we should start seeing some in about a week look for slowed growth expectations on your metas, googles and what not that would be telling. People want to see if there still growing. These company’s just spend sooooo much on building out compute been great for buying dips on all the long term stuff seeing money come back into my mortgage plays and software plays. Also looks like healthcare as well??? Which idk healthcare feels kinda weird unless it’s a big boy. Finance seeing a lil love sold off a lot today but everything kinda did.

CNBC posted a story about the chip sector taking some hits like you mentioned Anthony. Estimated EPS for CRCL is at .19 and I’m seeing that insiders are scooping up some shares, I think in anticipation of Q2 earnings. We shall see!

So SK Hynix is looking to raise some money in the U.S. guess they tapped out Korea. List tomorrow there a hardware provider like Sandisk or Micron. Hopefully after the ipo in the US Tomorrow we find some stability in the hardware side of this AI trade or might spell some bad news for the market as a whole it’ll be an interesting watch tomorrow keep an eye out for these other hardware stocks to fall fast. They’ve been coming some all week in preparation.

https://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/20260709409/sk-hynix-is-about-to-hit-the-us-market-heres-what-to-know-about-the-deal

Good morning on the 250th year of the founding of the United States of America! Built on the idea that the people could govern themselves which I think is pretty cool 🥳😎

It could be Elizabeth, I view my 401k as a long term investment and then stocks I think more than a year does it for me.

I hear you. I just turned 55 but I was always advised to look at long-term so maybe we have a difference of timing?

The term “fast food economy/society” has been around for a very long time, was I in my twenties when I first heard it? Probably…and I’m 47 now. The oil price thing you mentioned Anthony, is puzzling for me…seems like the price rides on sentiment and not hard data..I don’t know

I agree with that. Looking all around, pricing is not consistent with a solid economy. We are headed for that cliff and the drop off will be significant, not a 3 foot fall. I see a false sense of security and safety. We as a whole lack savings and the big picture. The fast food society we created doesnt force us to look at long term. We want it now, not later.

Right? I had the same thoughts! And the article was posted on 6/12/26 so it’s not fresh. Which Brent crude is trading at $72 a barrel?? I’m not getting it us oil west Texas intermediate oil which is the pricing company named in the article is a few bucks lower at $69 Iran attacking ships I’m missing something right?? It doesn’t make sense with oil being so low warsh signaling rate hikes overvaluation in the market liquidity troubles, over leverage! Sounds like the economic version of lions tigers and bears! even after the big sell offs this week Friday considerable rebound what how? It seems like we’re just doing everything we can to kick the can down the road until the road turns into a cliff

That is a sobering article

So is that safe to say you’re mostly in cash right now John? Or are you nibbling/doubling down on long term high conviction picks? Like “CRCL” for example I’ve been trying to find some news outside of crypto risk off sell off for the pain in the stock and all I found is new partnership new expansion of network all good news I can’t find anything was wondering if you had any insights?

I’m getting there.. still taking things day by day. I haven’t been actively trading.. still patiently waiting for the world to run out of oil and my very sizable bets to pay off. It’s been hard to watch our president get played by Iran and even harder to watch the media get played by the president. All my Kalshi bets on the price of oil in May were set to pay off but evaporated two days before expiration.. Super annoying.. and has anything really changed? The Strait of Hormuz is still not fully open. Global oil supplies are at critical lows (including in the US) but no one’s paying attention. Well, almost no one. Read the attached article. I’ve been tracking this unprecedented global energy crisis for weeks and it’s very real. In the US, most pipelines flow to Cushing Oklahoma.. into hundreds of storage tanks. Those tanks cannot fall too low or they mechanically fail. This week they fell below their critical thresholds. These “tank bottoms” are now limiting deliveries to refiners and Gulf ports. We drained our Strategic Oil Reserve.. as did most other nations. Iran, today, hit a ship attempting to exit Hormuz. Trump wrote The Art of the Deal. I haven’t read it, but I’m guessing there’s a part about not showing your desperation and not giving away everything for nothing in return. The impending disaster was the real reason Trump made the deal of the century (for Iran). He said it out loud during his press conference in Geneva last week. He said the world was heading for a catastrophic shortage of oil within weeks. Guess what.. it still is. Iran knows this. Russia and China know this. The day that Trump announced he was signing the MOU, Iran was meeting with both Russian and China at the same time. I’m guessing it wasn’t a meeting about how they can help the USA be more powerful. I’ve said all along Iran will never cave. They’ll accept billions of dollars and a deal forcing the US to back off.. yeah, of course. But does that mean they’ll stop using their leverage over the Strait of Hormuz and let Trump take a victory lap? I doubt it. I think this tit-for-tat goes on for a very, very long time and the AI infrastructure over-build is already showing cracks. I don’t know when the crash is coming.. but it’s coming.. and it will be 40-50%. Continue to trim your winners. “No one ever went broke selling a stock” https://edition.cnn.com/2026/06/12/business/cushing-oil-inventory

Well said 👏

As for John I’ve been missing his input as well I've reached out to Danny a couple times. Sounds like John’s just trying to get the fire going again not Danny's words but my take. What John says carries weight especially in this chat. You gotta be in a good clear mind with this stuff and positive mood defiantly helps. We’ve seen it even just having convos about finance he gets attacked. While I wish we heard more I don’t blame the guy. That being said John if you’re seeing this come on back! Turbulent times in the markets would love your POV!

My take on STLA was similar massive company they own just about everybody lol them and VW STLA ultra long term they’ve made some really really bad decisions as a company and will need some time to recover there also extremely corporate and numbers driven they operate on a very numbers only acquire and borrow worry about it later kinda mentality.

I miss John chiming in. 🙄